the last stake of the group stage
Surprisingly, this 2022/2023 Champions League has already taught several lessons. If clubs like Club Brugge, Napoli or Benfica were able to surprise with a dazzling game and convincing results, big names like Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain or Real Madrid have stood their ground. This is not the case for Juventus, FC Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid who have already been eliminated from the most prestigious of competitions. If some results are final, there are still some problems during this last day of the Champions League group stage.
Group A
Napoli and Liverpool have already qualified and will fight for first place. Advantage for the Italians who won 4-1 in the first leg and who must not lose with 4 or more goals against the Reds to stay first. For third place, the scenario is identical between Ajax Amsterdam and Glasgow Rangers. The Dutch team, who won 4-0 in the first leg, will not have to lose 5 or more goals to go to the Europa League.
Group B
In group B we will have the right to a long-distance fight for first and third place. First and second respectively, Club Brugge and FC Porto are separated by one point and have a particularly similar difference (4-0 and 0-4) as well as a difference slightly in favor of the Portuguese (+3 against +4). For Porto to double against Bruges, the Portuguese must achieve a better result, a win against a Belgian draw or loss or a combined draw with a Belgian defeat. Brugge will face Bayer Leverkusen and Porto will meet Atlético de Madrid. For third place, Atlético have one point more than the Germans, but the latter have a particularly better difference (2-0 and 2-2). So it takes a win for Bayer and at the same time a draw or a loss for Atlético or a German draw and a loss for Atlético for Leverkusen to surpass their predecessor.
Group C
No participation in this group C where the positions are already known. Bayern Munich will finish first ahead of Inter who will be second. The match between the two teams could allow the Germans to complete the group stage with 18 points out of 18 while Inter will want a rematch for the first leg (2-0 defeat). Third, FC Barcelona will go to the Europa League and will want to finish with a bang against Viktoria Plzen. The Czechs will try to avoid zero points.
D group
The group where anything can happen. Tottenham is first with 8 points, Sporting follows with 7 points like Eintracht Frankfurt despite a particularly unfavorable difference (3-0 defeat) while Marseille is fourth with 6 points. Tottenham need to win or draw against Marseille hoping for a draw between Sporting and Frankfurt to be first. Any result other than a defeat will qualify Tottenham who will find themselves at least third. Opponents of Spurs, Marseille absolutely must win to qualify for the Champions League. A win and a draw in the other match and the Phocaeans will even be first. In case of a draw combined with a defeat of Sporting against Frankfurt, OM will go to the Europa League. For Eintracht and Sporting, the scenario also offers multiple options. A win for either team and they will qualify for the Champions League. A draw, on the other hand, would favor Sporting who will certainly be second in this context.
E group
After the 2-1 win against Salzburg, Chelsea secured first place as the Blues are three points ahead of Milan with a particularly better difference (3-0 and 2-0). They will challenge Zagreb who are last and can no longer overcome Milan who have a 3-point lead and a particularly better lead (3-1 and 4-0). Croatia’s only hope, to win while Salzburg lose against Milan to grab the third place synonymous with the Europa League. A feeble hope while AC Milan will receive Salzburg for a clash at the top. The Italians must not lose to qualify while the Austrians must win.
F group
Real Madrid are already through when it comes time to face Celtic but a Leipzig win against Shakhtar could allow the Germans to overcome the Merengues. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s men have a comfortable mattress given that only a victory for Leipzig would force them to win at the same time to stay first. With little hope of taking first place, Leipzig will have to hold on against Shakhtar Donetsk and not lose. For the Ukrainians, qualified at least in the Europa League, all that remains is to win to qualify. Fourth, Celtic are already eliminated.
G group
This is the second group where there is no longer a stake. Leaders, Manchester City can no longer be reached and will finish ahead of Borussia Dortmund who are second and certainly qualified. Thirdly, Sevilla will go into the Europa League after a 3-0 win against Copenhagen on the last day and the Danes will be eliminated from all European competitions.
H group
Long-distance battle between PSG and Benfica for first place and between Juventus and Maccabi Haifa for third place. Juventus will receive the residents of Ile-de-France while the Portuguese will travel to Israel. For first place, Benfica must do a better result than Paris Saint-Germain (Win vs. Draw or Parisian Loss or Draw vs. Parisian Loss). If both teams win, Benfica will need to win by a minimum of 5 goals to hope to wrest first place from PSG. As for the fight for third place, Juventus is ahead of Maccabi Haifa who will have to hope for a better result than the Old Lady (win against draw or transalpine defeat or draw against transalpine defeat). If both teams lose, it will take a cataclysm for the black and whites not to be third as Juventus’ difference is -3 and Maccabi Haifa’s -9.
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